Do not disrespect sell signals in futures. Do not disrespect warning signs from the cash market. Have a hair trigger on remaining 2020 bushels.
There is no “bailout” in commodity markets — just risk. It makes me crazy when someone says, “The bulls were bailed out by Chinese buying.” Or, “The bears got bailed out by those rains.”
“La Ni?a will affect price action into spring, but do not build a marketing plan on weather — a weather outlook is even more fragile.”
Consider these sell-and-replace strategies to own crops on paper instead of in the bin.
The soybean market will work to buy more acres for 2021.
To maintain food security, China is now a reliable buyer of U.S. corn.
If China’s imports increase, it still might not make prices jump.
Understanding “the process” used by USDA’s National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) to assemble survey-based estimates makes a big difference in your risk
management plan and your expectations.